Class 4A might be the most balanced bracket in Florida this year. There’s star power at the top, chaos potential at the bottom, and enough elite pitching, power hitting, and playoff-tested programs to make this anyone’s title to claim. American Heritage enters with the No. 1 overall ranking, but the path to Longwood is packed with landmines—regional matchups that could flip the bracket upside down before the dust settles. From Lake Region’s dominant staff to Osceola’s deep lineup and a handful of under-the-radar teams peaking at the right time, there’s no shortage of storylines to follow. This is where dynasties can be made, seniors cement their legacy, and contenders either rise—or unravel. Welcome to the most unpredictable ride of the postseason.
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Region 1
Quarterfinals
(1) Baker County vs. (8) Choctawhatchee
Baker County enters as the clear favorite, and for good reason. The Wildcats boast one of the state’s top team ERAs, anchored by the one-two punch of Rylee Walker (1.71 ERA) and freshman Grace Masterson (0.98 ERA, 96 K in 57 IP). They don’t have gaudy home run numbers, but Baleigh Shields (.534), Chloe Johnson (.359), and Kentlee Payne (.355) give them quality at-bats and timely production.
Choctawhatchee is up against it. AnnMarie Gilbert does most of the work in the circle and at the plate, but her 5.72 ERA and 10 HR allowed in 109 innings is a concern against a disciplined lineup like Baker’s. Unless Choctaw can scrap together a big inning early and make Baker play from behind—a scenario they rarely face—this one feels lopsided.
Pick: Baker County
(4) Arnold vs. (5) Clay
Arnold is a tough out with a deep, aggressive lineup. Jayden Reyes (.421), Laela Kern (.408), and Hayley Sexton (.378) pace an offense that has slugged its way to 8+ runs per game. In the circle, Bre Clark (1.47 ERA, 248 K) has been the anchor. She gives up the occasional big fly (8 HR), but she misses a ton of bats.
Clay will need freshman pitcher Sadie Russo (2.70 ERA, 94 K) to be lights out—and mistake-free. The Blue Devils aren’t as deep at the plate, but they have pieces: Amiah Carrubba (.364) and Hailey Hackett (.415) can spark rallies. Still, they’ll need to keep it low-scoring to have a shot, and that’s a tall ask against Arnold’s firepower.
Pick: Arnold
(2) Fort Walton Beach vs. (7) Menendez
Fort Walton comes in with arguably the region’s most productive offense. Hannah Isham (.505), Anna Abernathy (.462), and Alyx Hall (.439 with 9 HR) headline a team that thrives on turning pressure into crooked numbers. Pitching isn’t their calling card (team ERA over 3), but Rilyn Douglas has carried a heavy load and knows how to work with a lead.
Menendez has a few bats worth noting—Rylan Degrande (.424, 6 HR) and Meghan Dawson (.387)—but the pitching staff has been roughed up all season (combined ERA over 6.00). Against Fort Walton’s lineup, that’s a red flag. If this turns into a slugfest, Menendez can’t match them punch for punch.
Pick: Fort Walton Beach
(3) Columbia vs. (6) Escambia
This is the most compelling quarterfinal in the region. Columbia is steady, not flashy. Luisa Taylor (.422), Kimber Long (.380, 4 HR), and Sakiya Merriex (.378) lead a lineup that doesn’t strike out much and puts the ball in play. Sophomore Harleigh Price (2.15 ERA, 108 K) has been solid in the circle and keeps the ball in the yard.
Escambia, though, brings serious pop. Madelynn Ladner is hitting .608 with 17 doubles and anchors both the lineup and the pitching staff. Add in Abbie Freeman (.412) and Amber Markham (.413), and there’s legitimate danger at the top and middle. The issue is pitching depth—if Ladner struggles, there’s not much behind her.
If Columbia can limit the extra-base hits and force Escambia into small-ball, they’ll grind this one out.
Pick: Columbia (tight game)
Semifinals
(1) Baker County vs. (4) Arnold
This is a fascinating contrast in style. Baker County wants to control tempo, limit mistakes, and let its pitchers do the heavy lifting. Arnold, on the other hand, wants to swing hard and swing often. If Clark is sharp and neutralizes Baker’s top three hitters, the Marlins could make this interesting. But Baker’s depth in the circle—and ability to manufacture runs without relying on the long ball—makes them a tough matchup for a power-hitting team with some strikeout risk.
Edge: Baker County
(2) Fort Walton Beach vs. (3) Columbia
Fort Walton is built to outscore you, not outlast you. Columbia brings more balance and better pitching, but can they keep Isham, Abernathy, and Hall from creating havoc? If Price can limit damage early and Columbia avoids falling behind, their offense is efficient enough to make Fort Walton sweat. However, if this one gets into the sixth or seventh inning tied, Fort Walton’s top half of the order can still do damage late.
Edge: Fort Walton Beach (in a back-and-forth game)
Regional Final
(1) Baker County vs. (2) Fort Walton Beach
Both teams earned it. Fort Walton’s offense can swing with anybody in the class, but they haven’t faced a rotation quite like Baker’s. Rylee Walker and Grace Masterson can both give different looks, and Baker’s defense is clean and low-error. If Fort Walton doesn’t make it hurt when they get runners aboard, the Wildcats will slowly chip away on the other end.
In a game likely decided by execution and pitching depth, Baker’s profile just fits the moment.
Pick: Baker County wins Region 1
Region 2
Quarterfinals
(1) Lake Region vs. (8) Merritt Island
Lake Region enters with one of the most complete resumes in 4A. They boast a senior-heavy core led by Makenna Meadows in the circle (0.62 ERA, 218 K) and Margaret Jenkins (.500 AVG, 3 HR, 12 2B) at the top of the order. Meadows and sophomore Kailyn Reeder (0.97 ERA) give the Thunder a two-arm combo that few teams in the state can match.
Merritt Island has some pop in Elena Rollen (.557 AVG, 7 2B, 4 3B) and depth throughout the lineup, but pitching has been inconsistent. Rindi Amos has logged 130 innings with 145 strikeouts, but she’s also allowed 137 hits. Lake Region’s contact-driven approach and patience should expose those gaps.
Pick: Lake Region pulls away late.
(4) Vanguard vs. (5) Tavares
This could be the tightest matchup of the round. Vanguard’s Jaelynn Whipple (.444 AVG, 11 HR) is one of the most dangerous bats in the region, and Hannah Davis has thrown over 113 innings with a solid 2.28 ERA.
Tavares is built on a gritty, senior-led group and leans on Emersyn Lee in the circle (1.79 ERA, 127 K). Jasmine Lawrence brings leadership and power, while freshman Tayla Yates is starting to show up in big spots.
The question: Can Tavares keep Whipple in the yard? If not, it could get away from them.
Pick: Vanguard in a low-scoring battle.
(3) Lake Wales vs. (6) Rockledge
Lake Wales has firepower at the top—Keira Davis (.474 AVG, 11 3B) and freshman Mattie Cockrell (.385 AVG, 7 HR) make for a dangerous duo. On the mound, Anna Conroy (1.73 ERA, 104 K) has been a workhorse.
Rockledge has a deep lineup with solid production from Kaylah Comeau and Ahraya Dalaq, but their pitching hasn’t been as efficient. Haley Smith (2.50 ERA) and freshman Riley Ravenscroft will need to be sharp to slow down Lake Wales’ attack.
Pick: Lake Wales advances behind the bats.
(2) Eau Gallie vs. (7) Citrus
Eau Gallie’s depth is the difference here. They’ve got five hitters batting over .360 and three pitchers capable of getting outs, led by Isabel Gambill and freshman Evie Martin (1.35 ERA).
Citrus can hit—four players above .400, including Paisley Williamson and Baylie Goodwin—but the pitching staff has struggled against higher-level lineups. If Eau Gallie keeps the ball in the yard, their depth should take over.
Pick: Eau Gallie pulls away by the fifth.
Semifinals
(1) Lake Region vs. (4) Vanguard
Whipple can change games with one swing, and Davis has proven she can navigate big innings, but Lake Region’s balance is different. Jenkins and Meadows give them a veteran presence, and they’ve won tight games all year. Expect a couple momentum swings, but Lake Region’s bullpen depth may be the separator.
Pick: Lake Region by a run or two.
(2) Eau Gallie vs. (3) Lake Wales
This is a true toss-up. Both teams hit well, but Eau Gallie’s pitching trio offers more flexibility late. The key matchup: Can Eau Gallie slow down Davis and Cockrell? If they do, they’ve got the edge. If not, Lake Wales could slug their way through.
Pick: Slight lean to Eau Gallie in extra innings.
Regional Final
(1) Lake Region vs. (2) Eau Gallie
Two of the top five teams in the state and they’ve been building toward this. Meadows vs. Gambill is the headline, but it could come down to who gets the timely hit in the sixth or seventh.
Lake Region’s track record in close games, plus their ability to string together tough at-bats, gives them a slight edge.
Pick: Lake Region heads to the Final Four.
Region 3
Quarterfinals
(1) Osceola vs. (8) Port Charlotte
Osceola is deep, disciplined, and dangerous. The Warriors hit .374 as a team, led by Angelina Rodriguez (.493 AVG, 12 2B) and senior slugger Theresa Diez (.369 AVG, 6 HR). They’ve got versatility in the circle too: Aliyah Lai has logged 122.2 innings with a 2.11 ERA and 155 Ks, and Diez can step in for key outs. Their defense is strong, their bats come in waves, and they don’t give games away.
Port Charlotte, on the other hand, has power from Jaylin Pinedo (.386, 4 HR) and Jac Kirk (.312, 15 R), but they’ve allowed 130 earned runs between their two main pitchers. Pinedo throws hard but gets hit harder, and walks are a concern. They’d need a perfect game — and a whole lot of luck — to pull the upset.
Edge: Osceola, by a wide margin. Too many arms, too much offense.
(4) Pasco vs. (5) Estero
Pasco comes in as a balanced team built around senior two-way leader Abigail Grubbs (.369 AVG, 3 HR; 2.43 ERA, 111 K). She’ll need to dominate the circle and drive in runs because the offense outside of her and Montelongo (.328 AVG) has lacked consistency. The Pirates have kept games close, but they struggle when forced to play from behind.
Estero is more explosive, with five regulars hitting over .400. Ava Weinbaum (.551 AVG, 3 HR), Dena Peregrin (.411, 5 3B, 2 HR), and Abby Guerra (.403 AVG) form a top-heavy but potent lineup. Their weakness is in the circle—Annika Jarvi has logged 103.2 innings with a 3.38 ERA, and the bullpen has struggled to hold leads.
Expect a close one. If Grubbs can keep Estero from stringing together early rallies, Pasco has a shot. But Estero’s offense has a higher ceiling.
Edge: Estero, but closer than the seeds suggest.
(2) Clearwater vs. (7) Gulf
Clearwater is balanced and built for tournament play. They’re hitting .386 as a team, and freshman Kabela Corning (.573 AVG) has been a revelation. Veteran Juleah Patterson (.420 AVG, 4 HR) brings power and presence, and the pitching trio of Jost, Maske, and Kimmet offers flexibility even if none are true aces. They’ve won tight games and can win in different ways.
Gulf has one shot: Jeovanna Carter. The freshman ace has thrown 150.2 innings, struck out 321, and owns a 1.77 ERA. She’s also hit .303 at the plate. The problem? The lineup around her doesn’t scare anyone beyond Alana Delaney (.476, 4 HR) and big sister Julianna Carter (.378, 7 2B, 2 HR). If Carter doesn’t throw a shutout, Gulf isn’t likely to win.
Edge: Clearwater, unless Carter throws the game of her life.
(3) Seminole vs. (6) Hudson
Seminole is tough but top-heavy. Kaydin Whitenton (.365 AVG) and Sydney Beardsley (.344) carry the offense, but production falls off quickly after them. Pitching has been shaky—Kailynn Emener (4.98 ERA) gives up too many base runners, and the Warhawks have struggled to get key outs late in games.
Hudson actually matches up well here. They’ve got multiple bats that can hurt you: Alivia Evans (.492), Ashley Anderson (.438), and Miley Clarke (.370) give them a solid 1–2–3 punch. The problem is in the circle—Gracie Gutierrez and Jenna Spengler have combined for a 5.13 ERA. But they’ve been competitive and scored in bunches.
This feels like a toss-up. If Seminole’s defense holds and Emener throws strikes, they survive. But Hudson has a better lineup top to bottom.
Edge: Slight lean to Hudson in a mini-upset.
Semifinals
(1) Osceola vs. (5) Estero
Estero’s offense is legit, but Osceola is too deep. If Lai keeps Peregrin and Weinbaum off the bases, Estero will struggle to hang. Osceola’s big-game experience, depth in the lineup, and ability to create runs from different spots gives them the edge.
(2) Clearwater vs. (6) Hudson
Clearwater has too many weapons. Unless Hudson gets a shutdown performance in the circle—and they haven’t shown that all year—this will turn into a late-game pullaway. Expect Clearwater to grind out at-bats and pressure Hudson into mistakes.
Regional Final
(1) Osceola vs. (2) Clearwater
This is the final we’ve expected since the bracket dropped. Clearwater has the bats and bullpen to compete, but Osceola is built for May. The Warriors are tested, smart, and don’t beat themselves. Rodriguez and Diez have been money all season, and Lai gives them the edge in the circle.
Pick: Osceola over Clearwater. The Warriors return to the Final Four behind balanced bats and dominant pitching.
Region 4
Quarterfinals
(1) American Heritage vs. (8) Hialeah
This one might be over before the third pitch. American Heritage is not just the top seed — they’re the top team in 4A for a reason. Lyric Rodriguez (0.82 ERA) and Isabella Benton (0.98 ERA) form the most dominant 1–2 pitching punch in the class. Add in a disciplined lineup featuring freshman Adrianna Layne (.467) and senior Arianna Reynolds (.393, 5 HR), and Heritage checks every box: power, depth, speed, and shutdown pitching.
Hialeah has only played two games all year and allowed 20 earned runs in 11.2 total innings pitched. They’ve got some speed and a couple of bats showing early flashes — but not at this level. It’s a mismatch.
Edge: American Heritage by a landslide. Anything else would be historic.
(4) Somerset Academy vs. (5) American (Hialeah)
This is a sneaky-good matchup. Somerset is gritty and well-rounded, but they’ve had to grind out games behind Caitlyn Diaz (94.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 156 K). Katie Bailey does everything: she’s hitting .440 with 4 HR and also pitches when needed. But they’ve lacked a true closer or knockout punch offensively.
American is a lineup you don’t want to see in May. Freshman Jamerikal Darden (.566 AVG, 27 RBI) and senior Ashley Ramon (.525 AVG) anchor a lineup hitting .500+ from the top four spots. Mia Harrison’s 2.39 ERA gives them a second arm to trust alongside Darden. Their only question is defense — they can score, but can they prevent?
Edge: American is the hotter lineup and has two arms. If they defend cleanly, they move on.
(2) Archbishop McCarthy vs. (7) Dr. Joaquin Garcia
Archbishop McCarthy has been quietly consistent, with seven starters hitting .330 or better and a balanced mix of power and contact. Alexis Nightingale (.419, 8 2B) and Izabel Baron (.358) set the table well, and Sienna Garcia has logged nearly 100 innings in the circle with a 2.33 ERA and 142 K.
Dr. Joaquin Garcia has talent in the lineup — Ava Johnston (.581, 10 2B) and Ella Lipp (.460) are real threats — but they’ve allowed 100 runs in 105 combined innings, and the staff ERA is north of 5.00. If they can’t keep McCarthy off the board early, it’s trouble.
Edge: Archbishop McCarthy. Too much offense and a real edge in the circle.
(3) Key West vs. (6) Barron Collier
Key West has quietly built a legit contender. They’ve got multiple young hitters contributing — Rodger (.424), Garcia (.387), Katz (.375) — and Brianna Brenner has been a steady presence in the circle (2.13 ERA, 93 K). They don’t overpower you, but they don’t beat themselves either.
Barron Collier is loud at the plate. Three hitters — Forbes, Kinn, and Frino — are all hitting above .520 and have combined for 11 homers. But the problem is their pitching. Leena Forbes has given up 142 runs (68 earned) in 109 innings. Even when they score, they can’t always hold a lead.
Edge: Key West, because they have the steadier pitching. Barron Collier has fireworks but no extinguisher.
Semifinals
(1) American Heritage vs. (5) American
A marquee name matchup, but American Heritage is the more complete team. If their pitchers can neutralize Darden and Ramon early, this won’t stay close. The Patriots can hit — but they haven’t seen a staff like Rodriguez/Benton.
(2) Archbishop McCarthy vs. (3) Key West
Closer than the seeds suggest. Key West is disciplined, but McCarthy’s offense is deeper, and Garcia gives them a slight edge in the circle. Should be a game of runs.
Regional Final
(1) American Heritage vs. (2) Archbishop McCarthy
This would be a rematch from earlier this season — and likely the same result. Archbishop has had a strong year, but American Heritage’s pitching depth and lineup balance make them the most complete team in the state.
Pick: American Heritage. Dominant, tested, and built for championship weeks.
Final Four
Semifinal 1: (1) American Heritage (Region 4 Champ) vs. (4) Osceola (Region 3 Champ)
This one pits the defending champ against a quietly surging challenger. American Heritage has everything you want in a state title favorite — elite arms, a contact-heavy lineup, and poise under pressure. Lyric Rodriguez and Isabella Benton have combined for 146 strikeouts and just 16 earned runs in 126+ innings. Offensively, they don’t need crooked numbers — they just don’t give away outs.
Osceola, though, has built a reputation for doing more with less. Aliyah Lai gives them a chance in every game (2.11 ERA, 155 Ks), and their lineup spreads the wealth. Four players have 30+ hits, led by Angelina Rodriguez and Jenna Neupaver, who can spark the offense or slug it out. If Osceola can keep it close through five, things could get tight late.
Prediction: American Heritage — too efficient, too complete.
Semifinal 2: (2) Lake Region (Region 2 Champ) vs. (3) Baker County (Region 1 Champ)
Here’s your grind-it-out semifinal — two teams that can both pitch, both play defense, and both get just enough offense to win the big ones. Lake Region leans on ace Makenna Meadows (0.62 ERA, 218 Ks) and doesn’t beat itself. Their 1-2 punch with Reeder and Jenkins in the lineup keeps the pressure on, and Meadows can dominate a lineup when she’s on.
But Baker County is as tested as anyone in the bracket. They have two dependable arms in Rylee Walker and Grace Masterson (combined ERA under 1.50), and Baleigh Shields (.534) is a game-changer at the plate. They just knocked off a red-hot Fort Walton Beach team and seem to thrive when things get tense.
Prediction: Lake Region — slight edge in strike-throwing and small-ball execution.
State Championship: American Heritage vs. Lake Region
It’s been American Heritage’s bracket to lose all season — and they’ve played like a team with something to prove. But Lake Region won’t hand anything over. This has the makings of a low-scoring final: Meadows vs. Rodriguez/Benton, both teams with playoff-proven lineups and disciplined coaching.
The difference may be at the plate. Heritage simply has more high-leverage at-bats under their belt, and their defense backs their pitching flawlessly. If Lake Region gets runners on, they’ll need to be aggressive — but Heritage doesn’t give extra bases.
Championship Pick: American Heritage
