As we roll into the 7 p.m. ET Selection Show on ESPN2, here is one fan-informed, data-driven projection for the full 64-team NCAA softball field and 16-regional bracket.

This simulation factors in the latest NCAA RPI picture, with Arkansas at No. 1, Alabama at No. 2, and Nebraska at No. 3, along with final conference tournament results, strength of schedule, quadrant records, head-to-head results, momentum, the eye test, the new top-32 national seeding format, and yes, the yearly committee tradition of giving the SEC a nice warm blanket and a juice box.

Per preference, Texas is locked in as the overall No. 1 national seed, Nebraska stays protected at No. 4, and Florida State gets elevated into the top eight, giving the Noles a strong hosting path through Tallahassee.

The bracket tries to balance geography, conference-avoidance rules, travel, résumé strength, and the reality that the SEC is probably going to get treated like it owns the building.

Top 16 National Seeds (Predictions)

Regional Hosts

  1. Texas
  2. Alabama
  3. Arkansas
  4. Nebraska
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Tennessee
  7. Florida
  8. Florida State
  9. Texas Tech
  10. UCLA
  11. Georgia
  12. Duke
  13. LSU
  14. Oklahoma State
  15. Oregon
  16. Texas A&M

That is a monster top line. The SEC is everywhere, because of course it is. You cannot swing a bat in this bracket without hitting three SEC teams, a committee talking point, and somebody yelling about strength of schedule.

The 16 Projected Regionals

1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 openers, double elimination

No. 1 Texas Regional

Austin, Texas

  1. Texas
  2. Stanford
  3. Grand Canyon
  4. Stetson

Texas gets the clean No. 1 overall path and stays home in Austin. Stanford as a two-seed is dangerous enough to make this regional uncomfortable, but Texas should still be the clear favorite. Grand Canyon is the kind of mid-major nobody wants to see if the bats get loose early.

No. 2 Alabama Regional

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

  1. Alabama
  2. Virginia Tech
  3. McNeese
  4. Howard

Tuscaloosa gets a very committee-looking regional. Alabama at home, Virginia Tech as the primary threat, and two automatic qualifiers trying to turn the weekend into a knife fight. Alabama should advance, but Virginia Tech has enough punch to make people sweat through those polos.

No. 3 Arkansas Regional

Fayetteville, Arkansas

  1. Arkansas
  2. Arizona
  3. South Alabama
  4. Fordham

Arkansas has the RPI case to be right at the top of the board, but in this projection Texas gets the No. 1 overall nod. Arizona as a two-seed is spicy. South Alabama is not a picnic either. This is not some sleepy regional where the host gets to nap until Sunday.

No. 4 Nebraska Regional

Lincoln, Nebraska

  1. Nebraska
  2. UCF
  3. Cal State Fullerton
  4. Akron

Nebraska stays protected as the No. 4 national seed, which matters. A lot. UCF is the real landmine here, and Cal State Fullerton has enough postseason DNA to annoy everybody. Still, Lincoln should be rocking, and Nebraska has earned the home-road advantage.

No. 5 Oklahoma Regional

Norman, Oklahoma

  1. Oklahoma
  2. South Carolina
  3. Belmont
  4. Northern Kentucky

Oklahoma is Oklahoma, which means nobody feels sorry for them, even when the draw is tricky. South Carolina makes this regional heavier than it looks. Belmont is a dangerous three-seed, and Northern Kentucky gets thrown into the Norman blender. Welcome to the party, try not to lose a limb.

No. 6 Tennessee Regional

Knoxville, Tennessee

  1. Tennessee
  2. Clemson
  3. Southeastern Louisiana
  4. Marist

Tennessee gets a strong but manageable home regional. Clemson is the headliner threat, and Southeastern Louisiana is a sneaky at-large team with enough résumé to justify being here. Marist comes in as the automatic qualifier trying to wreck somebody’s weekend before the bus even cools down.

No. 7 Florida Regional

Gainesville, Florida

  1. Florida
  2. Virginia
  3. Jacksonville State
  4. Binghamton

Florida gets to stay in Gainesville, which is usually where opposing dreams go to sweat and die. Virginia is a legitimate two-seed, and Jacksonville State is not a throwaway. Florida should like this draw, but it is not a free pass. There are teeth in here.

No. 8 Florida State Regional

Tallahassee, Florida

  1. Florida State
  2. Louisville
  3. Marshall
  4. Wagner

Florida State gets elevated into the top eight, and honestly, that hosting path feels right. The Noles have the profile, the brand, and the postseason danger factor. Louisville as a two-seed creates an ACC fistfight right away, while Marshall gives the regional some upset juice.

No. 9 Texas Tech Regional

Lubbock, Texas

  1. Texas Tech
  2. Washington
  3. Texas State
  4. USC Upstate

Texas Tech gets rewarded with a Lubbock regional, and this one could get weird fast. Washington has enough tournament experience to make the room uncomfortable, Texas State is dangerous, and USC Upstate is the classic four-seed that shows up with nothing to lose and bad intentions.

No. 10 UCLA Regional

Los Angeles, California

  1. UCLA
  2. Kansas
  3. Saint Mary’s
  4. Idaho State

UCLA hosting in Los Angeles just feels like May softball. Kansas gives this regional some Big 12 punch, while Saint Mary’s and Idaho State round it out geographically. UCLA should be favored, but Kansas is not showing up for the beach weather.

No. 11 Georgia Regional

Athens, Georgia

  1. Georgia
  2. Indiana
  3. Boston University
  4. Eastern Illinois

Georgia gets another SEC host spot, because apparently the conference gets one every time someone in the room says “quality loss.” Indiana is a strong two-seed, Boston University is a tough Patriot League automatic qualifier, and Eastern Illinois gives the regional a solid four-team shape.

No. 12 Duke Regional

Durham, North Carolina

  1. Duke
  2. Wisconsin
  3. College of Charleston
  4. South Dakota

Duke hosting in Durham makes sense. The Blue Devils have enough résumé weight and enough pitching to justify it. Wisconsin is the Big Ten problem in the two-hole, while Charleston and South Dakota give this bracket some real upset flavor. Duke should advance, but nobody is sleeping easy.

No. 13 LSU Regional

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

  1. LSU
  2. Michigan
  3. ULM
  4. California Baptist

Baton Rouge gets a fun one. LSU at home is always loud, messy, and dangerous. Michigan brings name-brand postseason baggage, ULM is a regional pest, and California Baptist is the kind of four-seed that can make the first game weird if the host starts tight.

No. 14 Oklahoma State Regional

Stillwater, Oklahoma

  1. Oklahoma State
  2. Auburn
  3. UNC Greensboro or Samford
  4. South Florida

Stillwater gets a tough draw. Oklahoma State is the host, but Auburn as a two-seed gives this thing SEC chaos right out of the gate. The SoCon automatic qualifier slot comes down to UNC Greensboro or Samford, while South Florida brings AAC tournament credibility.

No. 15 Oregon Regional

Eugene, Oregon

  1. Oregon
  2. Baylor
  3. Princeton
  4. Florida A&M

Oregon lands a host spot out west, which helps the bracket’s geography and rewards a strong overall profile. Baylor as a two-seed is dangerous for a team sitting near the bubble cut line. Princeton and Florida A&M round out a regional that could get interesting if Oregon starts slow.

No. 16 Texas A&M Regional

College Station, Texas

  1. Texas A&M
  2. Mississippi State
  3. Northwestern
  4. Purdue

This is the committee’s “let’s cause a fight online” regional. Texas A&M hosts, Mississippi State slides in as another SEC team, and the Big Ten bubble gets squeezed in with Northwestern and Purdue. If the committee really wants to reward power-conference depth, this is where it happens.

Last Four In

These are the bubble teams that survive the cut:

  1. Baylor
  2. Marshall
  3. Southeastern Louisiana
  4. Georgia Tech

Baylor has just enough Big 12 weight to hang on. Marshall brings a quality Sun Belt profile. Southeastern Louisiana feels like the kind of team the numbers like more than casual fans do. Georgia Tech grabs the final ACC spot in a tight bubble squeeze.

First Four Out

These teams are right there, noses pressed against the glass:

  1. North Carolina
  2. Northwestern
  3. Purdue
  4. Missouri

North Carolina has a case, but the résumé might not have enough meat on the bone. Northwestern and Purdue are classic Big Ten bubble headaches. Missouri is the one to watch because SEC bias can always show up late wearing sunglasses and pretending it was invited.

Final Read

This projection gives Texas the No. 1 overall seed and a favorable Austin regional. Nebraska stays protected at No. 4, which is huge for its path. Florida State gets a top-eight slot, giving the Seminoles a much cleaner road through Tallahassee.

The SEC dominates the host line with roughly nine top-16 teams, which feels heavy, but also very believable. That league has the résumé weight, the RPI strength, and the committee-friendly brand power. Whether everyone likes it or not is a different conversation, and probably one involving yelling.

The biggest drama sits around the bubble, especially with the ACC, Big Ten, Sun Belt, and marginal SEC teams fighting for those final spots. Grand Canyon and other high-RPI mid-majors get in, but they are likely getting tossed into tough three-seed spots because apparently the reward for being good outside the power leagues is a weekend trip to someone else’s buzzsaw.

Regionals begin May 15–17, with the road eventually leading to the Women’s College World Series in Oklahoma City.

Selection night should be spicy. Expect at least one team to get robbed, at least one SEC team to get treated like royalty, and at least one coach to smile on camera while absolutely preparing a grievance letter in their head.